Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
Australia is currently navigating its way out of what has been called the longest recession on record.
The nation has seen six consecutive quarters of declining per capita gross domestic product, indicating a sustained period of economic downturn.
A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.
Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.
In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.
According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”
Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”
There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”
Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”
Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.
Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.
Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”
These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.
Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
The 56th Sydney International On-Water Boat Show recently concluded after four dynamic days at Darling Harbour, drawing over 20,000 visitors and highlighting the latest advancements in marine design and technology. Presented by the Boating Industry Association (BIA) and Mulpha Events, the event featured more than 160 vessels from 120 leading international and Australian marine brands. - read more
The Australian truck and van market has experienced a notable decline in 2025, with sales figures indicating an 11.8% decrease compared to the previous year. According to the Truck Industry Council (TIC), a total of 33,727 heavy vehicles were sold by the end of September, marking a significant drop from the 38,254 units sold during the same period in 2024. - read more
In a landmark move towards sustainable transportation, Scania has delivered its first battery electric truck to Total Logistics Solutions (TLS), a prominent Australian logistics provider. The Scania 25 P, a 10-pallet curtainsider equipped with a powered tailgate, is set to revolutionise urban deliveries by eliminating tailpipe emissions. - read more
The Australian Trucking Association (ATA) has proposed a comprehensive $5 billion investment in targeted road upgrades over the next decade. This initiative is designed to support the adoption of high-productivity and low-emission trucks, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the transport sector and contributing to a reduction in the cost of living for Australian households. - read more
In a significant development for Australia's shipbuilding industry, the Australian government has approved South Korean conglomerate Hanwha's proposal to increase its shareholding in Austal Limited from 9.9% to 19.9%. This decision comes with stringent conditions aimed at protecting national security interests. - read more
Securing finance for any significant purchase can be a challenge, especially when it comes to acquiring a truck for business purposes. Coupled with a less-than-perfect credit score, this task can seem daunting for many Australians. The ripple effects of financial constraints can impede business operations, affecting the lifeline of commercial ventures that rely on transportation. - read more
Choosing the right commercial vehicle loan is a pivotal decision for any business aspiring to expand its transportation capabilities. For many, commercial vehicles are integral to daily operations, and securing the best financial arrangement to acquire these assets can significantly impact the bottom line. - read more
Welcome to the road less traveled, where the rubber meets financial prudence. Truck driving in Australia is not just about long miles but also about ensuring financial stability amidst life's crossroads. As a truck driver, taking the wheel of your financial future is crucial, and that's what we'll navigate in this article. - read more
Buying a truck is a major investment, whether it's for personal use or business purposes. With the plethora of options available in the Australian market, it's important to consider various factors before making a purchase. Your specific needs, budget, lifestyle, and work requirements should be taken into account before making a decision to ensure the truck you buy fits your needs. - read more
Small businesses that require regular transportation of goods may find it essential to purchase a truck. However, this acquisition can become a significant investment that requires careful consideration before making a decision. The two options available are buying or leasing a truck. In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of each option to help you make an informed choice. - read more
Start Here
Get a free truck loan eligibility assessment and compare truck finance and leasing options
without accessing your credit file!!
Knowledgebase
Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI): A personal finance measure that compares an individual's monthly debt payment to their monthly gross income.
