RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

CBA's Q1 2025 Profit: A Delicate Balance Between Growth and Margin Pressures

18 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest bank by market value, has reported a modest increase in its first-quarter cash profit for 2025. This uptick is primarily attributed to robust growth in home loans and household deposits. The unaudited cash profit stands at approximately A$2.6 billion, marking a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and a 2% increase compared to the same period last year. - read more

Major Banks Rethink Mortgage Strategies Amid Profit Margin Squeeze

18 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's leading banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are actively reducing their dependence on mortgage brokers. This strategic shift aims to bolster profit margins that have been under pressure due to lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intense market competition. - read more

Renewed Optimism: Australian Consumer Confidence on the Rise

18 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In November 2025, Australian consumer sentiment has turned optimistic for the first time since early 2022, marking a significant shift in public economic perception. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey indicates a 12.8% increase in the consumer sentiment index, reaching 103.8. A reading above 100 suggests that more consumers are optimistic than pessimistic. - read more

ASIC's Findings on Car Finance: High Fees and Early Defaults

18 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the nation's motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant issues that raise concerns about consumer protection and lending practices. - read more

Economic Pressures Drive Australians Towards Premium Used Cars

18 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

As Australians grapple with escalating living expenses, a notable shift is occurring in the automotive market. Consumers are increasingly turning to premium used vehicles as a cost-effective alternative to new car purchases. - read more

Click for more Finance News