RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

APRA Implements Cap on High DTI Home Loans to Address Housing Market Concerns

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will impose a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting such loans to 20% of new home lending portfolios. This measure is designed to address concerns over escalating property prices and the potential for financial instability. - read more

Commonwealth Bank Raises Alarm Over Surging Home Loan Demand

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest lender, has voiced concerns over the current surge in home loan demand, suggesting it may be contributing to escalating property prices and potential financial instability. CEO Matt Comyn emphasized that while the bank benefits from increased housing credit, a more moderate growth rate would better support long-term financial stability and housing market accessibility. - read more

Major Australian Banks Reduce Dependence on Mortgage Brokers

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's 'Big Four' banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), National Australia Bank (NAB), Westpac, and ANZ-are strategically reducing their reliance on mortgage brokers in response to squeezed profit margins resulting from lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intense market competition. Currently, mortgage brokers account for approximately 80% of new home loans in Australia, a significant increase from 50% six years ago. However, banks are now focusing on more profitable, in-house mortgage origination channels. - read more

RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.60%, Forecasts Extended Stability

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its decision to maintain the official cash rate at 3.60% during its December meeting, signaling a potential extended period of stability through 2026. This move reflects the central bank's response to higher-than-expected inflation and a robust economic environment. - read more

October Sees Significant Rise in Australian Household Spending

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In October 2025, Australian household spending experienced a notable increase of 1.3%, reaching A$78.4 billion. This marks the most substantial monthly rise in nearly two years, driven primarily by year-end sales events and heightened consumer confidence. - read more

Click for more Finance News