RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australia Partners with Japan's Mitsubishi for $6.5 Billion Warship Fleet

22 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a landmark decision, Australia has awarded a AU$10 billion (US$6.5 billion) contract to Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for the construction of 11 Mogami-class frigates. This agreement signifies the most substantial defense industry collaboration between the two nations to date. - read more

Marsh Secures Role in Australian Navy's Maritime Insurance Program

22 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Global insurance broker Marsh has been appointed by the Australian government to oversee the insurance and risk advisory components of the Royal Australian Navy's Maritime Insurance Program (MIP). This program is integral to the nation's extensive naval fleet expansion and infrastructure development initiatives. - read more

GT Insurance Provides Flexible Solutions Amid Trade Uncertainties

22 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In response to recent shifts in global trade dynamics, GT Insurance is reaffirming its commitment to supporting Australian marine clients navigating these challenges. The imposition of US tariffs-25% on Australian steel and aluminium, and 10% on other exported goods-has introduced new uncertainties for local exporters, particularly in sectors like beef and bulk freight. These tariffs, effective from April 5, 2025, have prompted concerns about declining export volumes and reduced freight margins. - read more

Non-Bank Lenders Escalate Court Actions as SME Insolvencies Surge

22 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates a significant shift in the enforcement landscape affecting Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Non-bank lenders have markedly increased their court-based recovery actions, coinciding with a rise in SME insolvencies. This trend emerges as major banks reduce their enforcement activities, highlighting a changing dynamic in creditor behaviour. - read more

Australian SMEs Reduce Borrowing Amid Interest Rate Uncertainty

22 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In the final quarter of 2025, Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exhibited a cautious approach to borrowing, influenced by ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates. This trend reflects a broader hesitancy among businesses to commit to new financing amid an unpredictable economic environment. - read more

Click for more Finance News