Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ASX 200 Declines Amid RBA Rate Hold and Inflation Concerns

04 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian stock market witnessed a downturn on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to leave interest rates unchanged, while cautioning about the potential for persistent inflation beyond the preferred range. The ASX 200 dropped by 81.1 points, or 0.91%, closing at 8813.7. Meanwhile, the All Ordinaries index similarly decreased by 84.3 points, or 0.92%, settling at 9098.2. - read more

Australia's Housing Market and Rental Crisis Intensify Amidst Policy Changes

03 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The introduction of the Albanese government's 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers at the start of October has led to a noticeable uptick in housing prices. According to Cotality’s latest data, October saw the strongest rise in house prices since June 2023, with a 1.1% increase that equates to a 2.9% rise over the quarter in Australia's major cities. - read more

Austal's $100 Million Boost for U.S. Shipbuilding Expansion

03 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Austal Limited, a leading Australian shipbuilder, has secured a substantial $100 million loan from Export Finance Australia (EFA) to bolster its shipbuilding operations in Mobile, Alabama. This strategic funding is earmarked for the development of the Final Assembly 2 (FA2) project, a significant initiative aimed at enhancing Austal's capacity to construct vessels for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. - read more

Marinex Underwriting: New Player in Australia's Marine Insurance Sector

03 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Marinex Underwriting, a newly established marine underwriting agency, has officially launched in the Australian market, aiming to address the complex insurance needs of the marine sector. Backed by global specialty insurance distributor Amwins, Marinex is a shared equity agency co-founded by industry veterans Janelle Karnib, Chris Kelly, and Ainsley Smith. - read more

Australia's Strategic Choice: Japan's New FFM for Naval Expansion

03 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to bolster its naval capabilities, Australia has officially selected Japan's New FFM design for its general purpose frigate program. This decision, announced by Defence Minister Richard Marles on August 5, 2025, marks a pivotal step in enhancing the Royal Australian Navy's operational capacity. - read more

Click for more Finance News