Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ANZ Bank Ceases Share Buyback to Fund Strategic Overhaul

13 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

ANZ Group has announced the cessation of its remaining A$800 million share buyback program, opting to conserve capital for a comprehensive strategic overhaul. This decision aligns with the bank's commitment to strengthening its market position and addressing recent regulatory challenges. - read more

RBNZ Announces Formation of Financial Policy Committee

13 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has unveiled plans to establish a new Financial Policy Committee (FPC) by early 2026. This initiative is designed to enhance the central bank's authority in setting prudential regulations for banks and making informed decisions regarding mortgage lending ratios. - read more

Australian Consumer Sentiment Falls Amid Inflation Concerns

13 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In October 2025, Australian consumer sentiment experienced a 3.5% decline, marking the second consecutive month of reduced optimism. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey reported a sentiment index drop to 92.1, following a 3.1% fall in September. This trend indicates a predominance of pessimism over optimism among consumers. - read more

Harley-Davidson's Potential Financing Unit Sale: What It Means for Australian Riders

13 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Harley-Davidson, the iconic American motorcycle manufacturer, is reportedly in discussions to sell a stake in its financing arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This move could have significant implications for Australian riders seeking financing options for their motorcycle purchases. - read more

Small Business Lending Surges After RBA's Interest Rate Reductions

13 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant development for Australia's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have led to a notable increase in small business loan applications. This trend underscores a renewed sense of optimism among business owners, eager to leverage more favourable borrowing conditions to drive growth and expansion. - read more

Click for more Finance News