Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Trucking Association Challenges Proposed Fuel Tax Hike

09 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Trucking Association (ATA) has strongly opposed the Productivity Commission's proposal to phase out fuel tax credits for trucking operators, a move that would effectively double the fuel tax paid by the industry. ATA Chair Mark Parry highlighted that such an increase would raise the effective fuel tax from 32.4 cents to 66.1 cents per litre by 2035. - read more

Australia's First Major Electric Truck Charging Hub Set for Melbourne

09 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a landmark development for Australia's freight industry, energy company Mondo, with support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), is set to establish the nation's first major electric truck charging hub in Melbourne's Laverton North. The project, slated for completion by late 2026, represents a significant step towards reducing emissions in road freight. - read more

Australian Managed Funds Experience Significant Growth in 2025

07 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In 2025, Australian managed funds experienced a substantial increase of $35.9 billion, as reported by Calastone. This growth was primarily driven by investors seeking stability through fixed income strategies amidst global economic uncertainties. - read more

The Rise of Non-Bank Lenders in Australian SME Financing

07 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In recent years, Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have increasingly turned to non-bank lenders for their financing needs. This shift is driven by the demand for faster credit decisions and more flexible lending solutions, which traditional banks often struggle to provide. - read more

Australian SMEs Embrace Asset Finance to Drive Productivity

07 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Amidst economic uncertainties and a cautious lending environment, Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly turning to asset finance to bolster long-term productivity. Recent data from Valiant Finance indicates a significant surge in asset finance volumes, with a 41% increase in Q3 and a 33% rise in Q4 of 2025. - read more

Click for more Finance News