Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Volvo and CEFC Collaborate on $70 Million Electric Truck Financing Initiative

17 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move towards sustainable transportation, Volvo Group Australia has partnered with the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) to introduce a $70 million financing package aimed at accelerating the adoption of battery electric trucks (BETs) across the nation. This initiative seeks to address the financial barriers that have traditionally hindered the uptake of electric heavy vehicles. - read more

CEFC's $6 Million Investment Powers Woolworths' Electric Delivery Fleet

17 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) has announced a $6 million investment to support the deployment of 60 battery electric trucks (BETs) for Woolworths' last-mile deliveries in New South Wales and Victoria. This initiative is part of a broader effort to reduce emissions in the transport sector and promote the adoption of electric vehicles in commercial operations. - read more

Australian Truck Market Demonstrates Resilience with Strong Year-End Performance

17 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian truck and van market concluded 2025 with a robust performance, despite facing a 9.5% decline compared to the previous year's record figures. According to the Truck Industry Council (TIC), a total of 48,617 heavy vehicles were sold throughout the year, marking it as the third-best year on record for the industry. - read more

Sea-Doo Dominates Australian Marine Brand Searches in Q4 2025

15 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

As the Australian summer approaches, the marine industry has witnessed a significant shift in consumer interest, with Sea-Doo emerging as the most-searched marine brand in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to Retain Media's Q4 2025 Marine Market Brand Consideration Report, Sea-Doo captured 11.2% of search queries, marking a substantial 51.4% increase from the previous quarter's 7.4%. - read more

Starboard Maritime Intelligence Raises $20 Million to Advance AI Maritime Security

15 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant development for maritime security, Starboard Maritime Intelligence, a New Zealand-based company specializing in artificial intelligence solutions for ocean protection, has successfully closed a NZ$23 million (approximately AU$20.6 million) Series A funding round. This oversubscribed round attracted substantial interest from Australian venture capital firms, underscoring the growing importance of advanced technologies in safeguarding maritime interests. - read more

Click for more Finance News