The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
The Australian Government has expedited the launch of its expanded 5% Deposit Scheme, now effective from October 1, 2025, to assist first home buyers in entering the property market sooner. This initiative allows eligible individuals to purchase a home with a deposit as low as 5%, without the burden of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). - read more
The Australian housing market has witnessed a significant surge in first home buyer activity, with the number of new loans rising by 6.8% to 31,783 in the December quarter of 2025. This marks the most substantial increase since the December quarter of 2023, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). - read more
Yamaha Motor Australia has introduced an enticing finance offer for enthusiasts looking to purchase selected 2026 and earlier YZ models. This limited-time promotion features a 1% per annum comparison rate finance, coupled with factory savings, making it an opportune moment for riders to invest in Yamaha's renowned off-road motorcycles. - read more
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) has reported a 7.4% increase in motorcycle sales in Australia during the first quarter of 2026, with 20,624 new bikes sold between January and March. This growth is largely attributed to a significant rise in off-road motorcycle sales, which saw a 26.7% year-on-year increase, totaling 8,737 units. Scooter sales also experienced a 7.8% uptick, reaching 1,431 units. Conversely, the road segment declined by 3.2%, and off-highway vehicles saw a 9.2% decrease. - read more
MotorCycle Holdings Limited, Australia's leading motorcycle retailer, has reported a 21% increase in revenue for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year. This growth has elevated the company's market share to a record 19.8% in new vehicle sales, underscoring its dominant position in the industry. - read more
Securing finance for any significant purchase can be a challenge, especially when it comes to acquiring a truck for business purposes. Coupled with a less-than-perfect credit score, this task can seem daunting for many Australians. The ripple effects of financial constraints can impede business operations, affecting the lifeline of commercial ventures that rely on transportation. - read more
Commercial vehicle loans in Australia are a vital component in the Continuum of the transportation and logistics industry. They provide businesses and individuals with the necessary funds to acquire trucks and other heavy vehicles critical for their operations. Understanding the nuances of these loans is imperative for anyone in the market for a commercial vehicle. - read more
When purchasing a truck, whether for personal use or business, navigating the financial landscape can be daunting. This is where pre-approval comes into play. But what exactly does pre-approval mean in the context of buying a truck? - read more
Expanding your truck fleet is a critical step in driving business growth. For many small businesses, increasing the number of commercial vehicles means accessing new markets, delivering goods more efficiently, and ultimately, boosting profitability. In the competitive Australian market, staying ahead requires not just maintaining but expanding your transport capabilities. - read more
Buying a truck is a major investment, whether it's for personal use or business purposes. With the plethora of options available in the Australian market, it's important to consider various factors before making a purchase. Your specific needs, budget, lifestyle, and work requirements should be taken into account before making a decision to ensure the truck you buy fits your needs. - read more
Start Here
Get a free truck loan eligibility assessment and compare truck finance and leasing options
without accessing your credit file!!
Knowledgebase
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: A measure of a companys financial leverage, calculated by dividing its total liabilities by stockholders equity.
