China's AI Surprise Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets

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The move by DeepSeek has stirred significant market reactions, particularly in Europe and Asia, where shares took a noticeable hit. The pan-European STOXX 600 index, largely driven by its technology sector, saw a decline, with the Euro STOXX 50 dropping 1.4% during early trading hours.

Meanwhile, the tech-focused STOXX 600 technology index experienced a steep fall of 4.6%, marking its most significant one-day decline since October. Similarly, US futures linked to tech giants also took a dive, with Nasdaq Composite futures plummeting by more than 3.1% and S&P 500 futures decreasing by 2.0%.

George Lagarias, an investment strategist at Forvis Mazars, commented on the situation by stating, "China and DeepSeek say, at the very least, that they can deliver what ChatGPT can deliver today at a fraction of the cost—markets question the narrative that has been underpinning the whole market. It's a very frothy market, so it doesn't really take that much for investors to take some profit."

This development has particularly impacted AI bellwether companies like Nvidia, which saw its shares decrease by over 7.0% in pre-market trading. The ripple effect also reached Asian markets, with Japan's Nikkei dropping 0.9%, New Zealand's benchmark index slipping 0.2%, and Singapore's Straits Times index dipping 0.1%. Despite this, Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw a rally of 0.7% amid a contraction in Chinese manufacturing. On the mainland, blue-chip stocks fell by 0.4%.

The currency markets also reacted to geopolitical tensions and tariff considerations. The US dollar dipped amid uncertainty regarding broad US import tariffs. Although US President Donald Trump had previously threatened Colombia with tariffs over deportation disputes, the situation was temporarily defused when Colombia agreed to accept the flights, putting US sanctions on hold.

In regional currency fluctuations, the dollar gained 1% against the Mexican peso and a slight 0.1% against the Canadian dollar. This uncertainty reflects unease as Trump hinted at potential tariff impositions on key US trading partners, which are anticipated to commence on February 1.

Nomura's strategist, Naka Matsuzawa, offered insights saying, "As a trend, Trump is taking a more realistic, less aggressive stance on tariffs." He added, "Bottom line: Trump doesn't want big tariffs because he's worried about inflation. The dollar will be overall weaker."

This tumultuous market backdrop signals a crucial week ahead for financial markets, as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, among others, are poised to announce monetary policy decisions. Concurrently, several Asian bourses extend their closures for the Lunar New Year celebrations, with South Korea and Taiwan markets already closed on Monday and China expected to remain shut until February 5.

Elsewhere, global commodity markets saw moderate movements. Brent crude futures inched up by 0.3% to $78.75 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.2% to reach $74.80 a barrel. Gold, however, saw a slight decline of 0.3%, pricing at $2,764 per ounce. Cryptocurrency leader Bitcoin also witnessed a slump, falling over 5.0% to drop below $100,000, marking its first dip under that level in a week.

This article was inspired by insights from a Reuters report, originally authored by Samuel Indyk and Kevin Buckland.

Published:Tuesday, 28th Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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