Market Resilience Amid Strong Quarterly Inflation Data
Market Resilience Amid Strong Quarterly Inflation Data
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Following an initial surge, the Australian equities wavered into a close call as the market absorbed the recent inflation trends.
Trading remained virtually unchanged with the S&P index dropping a nominal 0.5 points to settle at 7683, and the All Ordinaries dipping gently by 0.4 points, ending the day at 7937.5.
The trajectory of the market took a turn upon the recent announcement from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which indicated a more robust inflation measure of one percent for the March quarter, surpassing forecasts which suggested a 0.8 percent rise. This unexpected inflation data shifted the odds of interest rate cuts considerably lower than previous market expectations.
Revised calculations reveal only a 19 percent likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will slash interest rates in the final session of the year, a significant drop from Tuesday's 80 percent prediction. Experts from respected firms, such as Citi and Westpac, have readjusted their expectations for policy adjustments in light of the fresh economic indicators.
No longer anticipating a September adjustment, Westpac's Luci Ellis took note of the inflation dynamics, delaying the anticipated reductions to after the Reserve Bank's November rendezvous. The Australian Dollar experienced an uptick against the US dollar, hitting a peak of US65.25 cents amidst these developments.
Shifting towards the Australian bond market, yields for three-year government bonds rallied by 11 basis points, achieving a year's peak at 4.04 percent. Within the exchange, sector performances varied. Utilities saw the largest descent, dipping by 0.6 percent, while financial services led counter-movements with a 0.4 percent advance.
Outcomes also varied among resource majors, with disparate movements among leading mining operatives. BHP declined by 0.6 percent, Rio Tinto fell slightly by 0.2 percent, and Fortescue Metals Group gained 0.7 percent, regardless of its reported slide in iron ore shipments that didn’t quite meet analyst predictions.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: +0.4% to $115
National Australia Bank: +0.5% to $34
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group: +0.3% to $28.54
Westpac: Leading the pack with a +0.9% surge to $26.19
Elsewhere in the financial sector, investment firm Perpetual took a hit, tumbling 3.5 percent after reporting substantial outflows. Yet the market holds its breath for furniture titan Nick Scali, as it paused trading ahead of significant announcements about its strategic international expansion plans.
Notable decreases also cropped up for Lynas Rare Earths and Kogan, down by 0.3 percent and a significant 27.5 percent respectively, the latter being affected by a sales reduction despite upticks in profits and margins. Lastly, murmurs of mergers involving Cleanaway were put to rest, with share values toppling by 10 percent due to clarified speculation, making it one of the day's sharpest fallers.
Recent analyses indicate that Australian home prices are expected to rise by approximately 6.9% in 2026, an upward revision from earlier projections of 5.6%. This forecast is based on a Reuters poll of 15 property analysts conducted between November 13 and 26, 2025. The anticipated increase is primarily attributed to a combination of limited housing supply and sustained demand, particularly in major cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. - read more
In its November 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. This decision reflects the central bank's cautious approach in balancing inflation control with economic stability. - read more
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Knowledgebase
Interest Rate: A rate which is charged or paid for the use of money. An interest rate is often expressed as an annual percentage of the principal. It is calculated by dividing the amount of interest by the amount of principal. Interest rates often change as a resul
