Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends

7

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.

Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.

"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."

Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."

The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.

Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.

Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.

"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.

The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.

Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Mortgage Market Hits Record $2.41 Trillion

29 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian mortgage market has reached a new milestone, with the total value of residential mortgages climbing to $2.41 trillion in November 2025. This growth is largely attributed to escalating property prices and a surge in lending activity. - read more

Housing Expenses Lead Australians' Financial Worries in 2026

29 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

As Australians step into 2026, housing costs have emerged as the foremost financial concern, overshadowing other cost-of-living pressures. The latest Canstar Consumer Pulse Report reveals that 22% of respondents identified mortgage and rent expenses as their primary financial stressor, more than doubling the figure from five years ago. - read more

NAB Raises Fixed Mortgage Rates in Response to Expected Cash Rate Hikes

29 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

National Australia Bank (NAB) has recently increased its fixed mortgage rates by up to 0.40 percentage points, signaling expectations of forthcoming cash rate hikes in 2026. This move aligns with actions taken by other major lenders, reflecting a broader anticipation of rising interest rates. - read more

New Initiative Makes Electric Vehicles More Affordable for Essential Workers

29 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move towards promoting sustainable transportation, essential workers and individuals earning below $100,000 annually in Australia now have access to more affordable electric vehicle (EV) loans. This initiative is part of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation's (CEFC) collaboration with CommBank's EV Access Program, which has allocated $150 million to support discounted loan rates for new and used EVs priced up to $55,000, as well as EV home charging equipment. - read more

Introducing 'Wealth': The Australian's New Personal Finance Hub

28 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian has unveiled 'Wealth', a dedicated digital-first section designed to assist Australians in making informed financial decisions. This initiative reflects the publication's commitment to providing comprehensive coverage on personal finance topics, including investment strategies, superannuation, retirement planning, and property investment. - read more

Click for more Finance News