Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends

7

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.

Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.

"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."

Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."

The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.

Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.

Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.

"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.

The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.

Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Housing Market Poised for 5% Growth in 2026

26 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's residential property market is projected to experience a 5% increase in house prices over the next 12 months. This follows an 8.6% rise in 2025, marking the strongest annual growth since 2021. The anticipated growth is primarily driven by demand outstripping supply, a trend observed across all states and territories. - read more

APRA Introduces Caps on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans

26 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced new measures to cap high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, effective from February 2026. This decision aims to curb potential risks in the housing market by limiting the proportion of new home loans that exceed a DTI ratio of six times the borrower's income. - read more

NAB Raises Fixed Home Loan Rates in Anticipation of RBA's February Decision

26 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a move that signals potential shifts in the Australian mortgage landscape, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has announced an increase in its fixed home loan rates by up to 0.40 percentage points. This adjustment comes as the banking sector braces for a possible cash rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February 2026. - read more

ANZ Implements Stricter Home Loan Policies for Company Borrowers

25 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant policy shift, ANZ Bank has tightened its mortgage lending criteria for company borrowers, effective from 8 January 2026. This move reflects a broader trend among major Australian lenders to recalibrate risk appetites and credit standards in response to evolving economic conditions. - read more

Non-Bank Lenders Intensify Legal Actions as Major Banks Scale Back

25 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Recent data reveals a notable increase in court enforcement actions by non-bank lenders, coinciding with a reduction in such activities by major banks. This trend signifies a shift in creditor behavior within Australia's financial sector, with non-bank institutions adopting more assertive measures to recover debts. - read more

Click for more Finance News