Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends

7

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.

Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.

"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."

Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."

The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.

Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.

Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.

"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.

The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.

Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Home Prices Poised for Continued Growth in 2026

18 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's housing market is set to experience further growth in 2026, with economists forecasting a 5% increase in home prices. This follows an 8.6% rise in 2025, marking the strongest annual growth since 2021. The anticipated growth is driven by a combination of factors, including ongoing supply constraints and robust population growth. - read more

Sydney and Melbourne Property Markets Show Signs of Cooling

18 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In December 2025, both Sydney and Melbourne property markets experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, marking a potential shift in the momentum of Australia's housing market. This downturn comes after a period of consistent growth, raising questions about the sustainability of recent price increases. - read more

Australian Rental Market Faces Tightening Conditions

18 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's rental market is experiencing tightening conditions, with vacancy rates dropping to 1.6% in December 2025, close to record lows. This tightening has led to a 5.2% increase in rents over the year, posing significant challenges for tenants across the country. - read more

NAB Enhances Digital Services with Google Cloud Integration

17 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

National Australia Bank (NAB) has taken a significant step in its digital transformation journey by integrating Google Cloud into its existing multi-cloud strategy. This move aims to bolster the bank's digital services and enhance operational efficiency, reflecting a broader trend among financial institutions to leverage cloud technologies for improved service delivery. - read more

MFAA Publishes Guides to Enhance Mortgage Broking Practices

17 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia (MFAA) has released the final two guides in its Business Growth Roundtable Series Insights, aimed at assisting mortgage brokers in developing sustainable and professional businesses. These resources are part of the MFAA's ongoing commitment to supporting the growth and professionalism of the mortgage broking industry. - read more

Click for more Finance News