Housing Crisis in Australia: Deeper Trouble Ahead

6

Issues such as high construction costs have accelerated the cost of building in major cities at a rate that outpaces property price growth. It increasingly appears more financially sound to purchase an existing home rather than build a new one.

According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's research director, "the cost of construction is yet to decline and it remains approximately 30% more expensive to build or renovate now compared to pre-COVID times," reflecting a prolonged period of inflating expenses.

SQM Research's founder and managing director, Louis Christopher, has expressed concern. He pointed out that "indicators show no signs of an imminent increase in housing supply," and has projected that there will be only "138,000 new dwellings completed by FY25."

PropTrack's executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, noted, "Building approvals have plunged to their lowest in a decade. The pandemic-induced rise in construction costs, labour shortages, and 12-year high interest rates have severely impacted new constructions."

Adding to the discourse, Ben Burston, chief economist at Knight Frank, warned that "restoring high levels of housing construction will be a laborious task" due to the steep increments in both construction and financing costs.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that only 163,800 homes were approved for construction in the year up to May. This is 32% (or 76,200 homes) short of the Albanese government’s 240,000 annual housing target.

It is crucial to note that the Albanese government’s target of 240,000 homes annually is unprecedented. The closest the nation came to meeting such a goal was in 2017 when 223,600 homes were built, which was still 7% below the target. This was achieved with a cash rate of 1.5%, compared to the current rate of 4.35%.

Back in 2017, builders also faced lower construction costs (some 40% less than today) and did not compete for labour with state government infrastructure projects. In comparison, data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) show that nearly 3,000 construction firms went bankrupt in the 2023-2024 financial year, reducing the sector’s productive capacity.

Given these macroeconomic conditions, it seems highly improbable for the Albanese government’s housing targets to be met, and dwelling completion rates are likely to remain low in the near term.

Ultimately, a long-term resolution to Australia’s housing shortage may necessitate reducing net overseas migration, hence easing the population demand below the nation’s housing and infrastructure supply capacity.

If these structural issues aren't addressed, Australia's housing crisis is poised to exacerbate.

Published:Tuesday, 16th Jul 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

OECD Warns of Sluggish Australian Economic Growth Amid Global Trade Concerns 18 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning about a potential slowdown in Australia's economic growth over the next two years. This prediction comes against the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, spurred by trade policies introduced by US President Donald Trump. The OECD projects Australia’s GDP to rise to 1.9% in 2025 but slip slightly to 1.8% in 2026, falling short of earlier expectations laid out in their December report. - read more

Sydney Leads Australia's Housing Market Resurgence 17 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori CoreLogic's latest preliminary auction results have revealed Sydney's dominant role in Australia's housing rebound, with an impressive clearance rate of 71.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive week that the auction clearance rate in Sydney has surpassed 70%. - read more

US Stock Decline Intensifies Amid Tariff Fears 12 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori US stock markets faced a significant downturn on Tuesday, deepening a selloff not seen in months, fueled by investors' concerns over the latest round of tariff threats and their potential repercussions on the global economy. The S&P 500 reached a critical low, nearing a 10 per cent drop from its record high, reflecting growing market volatility amidst mixed updates on international trade tensions and geopolitical events. - read more

RBA Rate Cut Sparks Surge in Australian Consumer Confidence 12 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent decision to reduce the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent in February has invigorated consumer confidence, reaching a three-year high. The upswing in sentiment began in late 2024 but waned slightly over the holiday season. However, March data from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index indicates a recovery, driven by the RBA's interest rate cut and easing cost pressures. - read more

Star Entertainment Secures $940M Refinancing Amid Financial Struggles 11 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori Star Entertainment Group has announced a crucial refinancing plan to address its significant debt obligations. The casino operator has forged an exclusivity and process deed with Salter Brothers Capital, signalling a potential $940 million refinancing initiative. This move, if successful, would allow Star to manage its existing debt portfolio effectively and ease the liquidity pressures it currently faces. - read more