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Australia is grappling with an increasingly severe housing crisis as rising interest rates and skyrocketing construction costs stifle the supply of new homes.
Experts fear that the national goal of constructing 1.2 million new homes over the next five years will remain out of reach.
Issues such as high construction costs have accelerated the cost of building in major cities at a rate that outpaces property price growth. It increasingly appears more financially sound to purchase an existing home rather than build a new one.
According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's research director, "the cost of construction is yet to decline and it remains approximately 30% more expensive to build or renovate now compared to pre-COVID times," reflecting a prolonged period of inflating expenses.
SQM Research's founder and managing director, Louis Christopher, has expressed concern. He pointed out that "indicators show no signs of an imminent increase in housing supply," and has projected that there will be only "138,000 new dwellings completed by FY25."
PropTrack's executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, noted, "Building approvals have plunged to their lowest in a decade. The pandemic-induced rise in construction costs, labour shortages, and 12-year high interest rates have severely impacted new constructions."
Adding to the discourse, Ben Burston, chief economist at Knight Frank, warned that "restoring high levels of housing construction will be a laborious task" due to the steep increments in both construction and financing costs.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that only 163,800 homes were approved for construction in the year up to May. This is 32% (or 76,200 homes) short of the Albanese government’s 240,000 annual housing target.
It is crucial to note that the Albanese government’s target of 240,000 homes annually is unprecedented. The closest the nation came to meeting such a goal was in 2017 when 223,600 homes were built, which was still 7% below the target. This was achieved with a cash rate of 1.5%, compared to the current rate of 4.35%.
Back in 2017, builders also faced lower construction costs (some 40% less than today) and did not compete for labour with state government infrastructure projects. In comparison, data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) show that nearly 3,000 construction firms went bankrupt in the 2023-2024 financial year, reducing the sector’s productive capacity.
Given these macroeconomic conditions, it seems highly improbable for the Albanese government’s housing targets to be met, and dwelling completion rates are likely to remain low in the near term.
Ultimately, a long-term resolution to Australia’s housing shortage may necessitate reducing net overseas migration, hence easing the population demand below the nation’s housing and infrastructure supply capacity.
If these structural issues aren't addressed, Australia's housing crisis is poised to exacerbate.
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Knowledgebase
Discount Rate: The interest rate used to determine the present value of future cash flows, often used in discounted cash flow analysis.
